U.S. Space Industry: Risking it All
I wrote this article recognizing that many readers will be turned off by its political content. And yes, it concerns the U.S. presidential election and possible impacts on the U.S. space industry. For those uninterested in U.S. politics, turn back now. Also, I’m uninterested in debating how wrong my opinion of a presidential candidate is. It’s an opinion, and it’s my opinion.
Exposing Bias and Industry Worries
To be clear, Donald Trump was and would be a terrible U.S. president. He blames others for all his failings (he’s exceptionally unlucky and always the victim). Trump is vindictive and petty. He’s easily manipulated (Harris did the verbal equivalent of drawing a tunnel on a wall quite a few times during their only debate, and Trump smacked into each one–EVERY SINGLE TIME). He preys on people. He’s a fan of Adolf Hitler’s generals…but doesn’t know who Erwin Rommel is? He definitely doesn’t know about Walter Dornberger, then.
Also, Trump is just whiny. This is my short list of reasons distilled from so many other reasons why he’s not qualified. I am also an independent with no desire to join political cliques. Political party loyalty is a double-edged tool I’d rather not deal with.
I present my status and reasons for this article to avoid any perception of a hidden bias. The following contains my thoughts and guesses based on the decade’s worth of actions we’ve witnessed from the whining and weird, overripe alpha orange.
Since I cover the space industry, I often wonder about the possible impacts of this election. If Trump is elected president again, it will negatively impact the U.S. space business. The negative consequences come from his character, which places the personal above policy. This means that even if Trump had policies, he would ignore or undercut them. He's done this before and often. Space is a business, and U.S. businesses in general have been and will be affected by Trump’s actions.
I am unworried about the current administration’s impact on the space business, which you’d think, based on reporting, is the best it’s ever been. It has undoubtedly launched more rockets and deployed more satellites than ever in 2023 and might exceed that in 2024. The administration’s attitude toward the industry can be described as benign ambivalence with negligible, possibly no, negative consequences. I’m also unworried about Kamala Harris’ effect on the industry.
SBA and MBDA Cuts
Small businesses, for example, suffered during Trump’s previous term as he proposed deep cuts to the Minority Business Development Agency (MBDA) and the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA). He appointed a few judges who are still trying to make the MBDA irrelevant.
Small businesses, owned by minorities or not, are fountainheads of U.S. space research and development efforts. Cutting the funding to grow these burgeoning companies as they conduct R&D services for their government customers means cutting into the U.S. R&D core. The SBA's Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) and Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) programs are tapped by NASA, USAF, NGA, and DARPA. They awarded grants to over 1,200 firms for nearly $1.5 billion in 2023. The MBDA awarded $3.8 billion in contract awards in FY 23, creating almost 20,000 jobs (it is hard to determine whether any of these MBDA numbers are space-related).
Will Trump continue cutting into those agencies if he’s elected again? Considering how determined he was to do so during his first term, the possibility seems more likely than not. If so, the resulting contraction of small business awards from the U.S. federal government will negatively impact U.S. innovation and space leadership.
I suspect that cutting contract awards to small businesses (either because the awarding agency has less funding or is just gone) will result in less innovation in the U.S., in terms of space and general. These cuts hurt the companies during their most susceptible period, even as they create technologies and products the government needs. On the other hand, the withdrawal of funds will not endanger large defense contractors like Boeing and Lockheed Martin. Those companies have the resources and knowledge to navigate the changing legal landscapes in the U.S. They aren’t small businesses, and it’s just business as usual for them.
However, The large companies will find they can’t buy into innovation anymore because the small companies that do that sort of thing will not be there…not as many, anyway. There will be no Terran Orbital, Millennium Space Systems, etc. for these companies. Basically, taking away the funds and flexibility from organizations that, on the whole, do a lot of good for fostering U.S. technological progress and fulfilling needs is the opposite of smart.
Anticipatory Obedience (Doesn’t Work) and Blue Origin
Aside from those policies, Trump is already impacting the space business, launch specifically, just by running for president again. The Washington Post chose not to endorse any presidential candidate. Frankly, the paper’s opinion on this means little to me. It’s also clear that Jeff Bezos made his decision to the surprise of those involved in drafting the endorsement. But I do care about why the newspaper decided not to endorse anyone.
According to the Columbia Journalism Review, “[t]he most serious allegation, though, is that Soon-Shiong and Bezos are trying to hedge their bets out of fear that their business interests could be harmed during a second Trump presidency.” The author later refers to Amazon, but Bezos is also tied to Blue Origin in the U.S. space industry.
A Daily Beast article ties Bezos's decision to kowtow to Trump:
“Robert Kagan, who resigned from his position on Friday after more than two decades at the publication, told the Daily Beast that Trump’s meeting with executives of Bezos’ Blue Origin space company the same day that the Amazon founder had killed a plan to support Harris was proof of the backroom deal.”
As an observation, anticipatory obedience as a response to Trump’s attacks never works. Kamala Harris exemplified how to handle and manipulate Trump. Pretending not to have an opinion about Trump and even allying with him only encourages more attacks (look at his attacks on Ted Cruz and Ron DeSantis after they became “friends”). Second, Bezos is supposed to be a super-great manager, but he fumbles this by failing to communicate his decision in advance, which surprises the people working for him. So. Dumb.
I assume that Trump will go after Bezos no matter what (he’s petty and vindictive, remember). Blue Origin will suffer in the assault, with Trump doing what he did to Amazon in his first term (looking at Amazon’s contracts with the DoD, for example). He’ll do it because getting compliance isn’t enough.
Blue Origin hasn’t launched an orbital rocket yet but is courting and winning government contracts for its business. If those contracts get yanked, there will be years of legal back-and-forth, so Blue Origin will have to rely on commercial customers during that time. Guess which company is currently launching the most commercial customers. Will New Glenn even launch, then?
Most of the U.S. public won’t be concerned about Blue Origin’s problems because of other challenges brought forth by Trump’s administration. And because a lot of the press keeps pushing the notion that the U.S. space launch industry is doing fantastic–how else can it launch so many rockets so often? There’s also the fact that no one will care that a billionaire is losing contracts. Bezos can sail away on his yacht with his latest emotional support cougar (to borrow Tim Miller’s description) to grieve the heinous injustice of it all.
However, the U.S. space industry will likely suffer if Blue Origin loses contracts. Blue Origin’s employees, who probably don’t have yachts and support cougars, will be the ones who suffer. While the company has failed to launch New Glenn so far, it employs thousands of people to work on its government contracts, such as lunar landers and space stations.
If New Glenn becomes operational, it will be the only U.S. alternative reusable rocket that competes with SpaceX’s Falcon 9. The U.S. Department of Defense is counting on Blue Origin to compete with SpaceX and supply redundancy to maintain national space security—Ditto for NASA and its lunar exploration plans.
All of these activities and plans could disappear if Trump gets elected.
At best, it goes through a long hold period, if only because senators and representatives from states where Blue Origin has a footprint will fight against their states losing employment (thousands) and funds (billions). ULA could be an alternative for the DoD, but NASA is hoping for launch vehicles that can get a lot of mass to the Moon. Trump, however, has hobbled NASA in the past.
There’s also a problem if Trump puts Elon Musk in charge as Lead Government Efficiency Commissioner. Musk’s “efficiency” initiatives would be a conflict of interest if implemented to eliminate redundancies in the space industry, such as rockets that compete with the Falcon 9 or Starship. He would go after laws and agencies that impede his company’s rocket development. The initiatives would also conveniently provide cover for Trump to go after Blue Origin’s contracts. Trump certainly wouldn’t urge Musk to address potential conflicts of interest (he’s never addressed his own). This kind of thing already happened between Trump and Carl Icahn.
My Opinions, My Conjecture
All of my vexations above are possibilities of a Trump ascendancy to President. They might not happen, but Trump has consistently demonstrated a bias toward violating laws, whether as a private citizen or a public servant. We’ve seen him in this role before, and he was terrible. More concerningly, the Supreme Court has recently interpreted the law so that the office of the President receives wide latitude for misbehaving. That’s bad for business. It’s also why Bezos is trying to play nice with Trump.
U.S. businesses and their prosperity rely on laws for certainty and security. Companies from other nations come to the U.S. because the laws protect them while allowing flexibility in executing their strategies. All are allowed some say in the laws (maybe a bit too much) to help them and their industries. But all of that becomes uncertain when the government starts choosing winners and losers.
Suppose government contracts aren’t available to a company because the president hates the company’s leadership and their political opinions. That’s a problem–especially when all issues are everyone else’s fault and not Trump’s. This scenario means nearly every company in every kind of market can run afoul of his ire and suffer consequences for merely voicing an opinion. Everyone has opinions.
I have more concerns about possible negative impacts on the U.S. space industry, primarily because the laws will become arbitrary with Trump in charge. The examples I’ve provided and my other unwritten concerns are based on Trump’s history and character. If he manages to live through his next four years as president (he’s old), Trump will change the U.S. space industry, but not in a good and considered way. However, the space industry’s challenges will be small compared to the more significant U.S. problems if Trump gets elected again. The risks associated with electing him are much too high.
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