2025 Space Industry Observations and an Update

It’s time for me to end my newsletter writing. 

At least, my weekly writing (I may write something now and then). So, if you are a paying Ill-Defined Space subscriber, first–Thank You! And then, I recommend canceling your subscription. In fact, thank you to all subscribers for reading my articles. Without your support and interest, I would likely never have gone as long as five years.

If you’re interested, the reason for stopping the analyses is this–I have a new job that promises to be very interesting to me. It honestly looks to be extremely cool. I get to do what I hoped some of my writing would achieve–help people understand and embrace the opportunities in the space industry. Strangely, I’ll be working for the United Kingdom’s Consulate in Miami as one of its Business and Trade team. The people I’ve talked with seem great, and I look forward to working with them! Happily, it involves the space industry, so I’ll still maintain an awareness of industry happenings.

Due to my new role, subscribers and acquaintances attending various events may occasionally see me. Please, never hesitate to come up and say hello. 

But because of my work with the consulate, I’m going to be too busy to write the usual 1,800 to 2,000 words per week. Just don’t be surprised if you see something posted from me from time to time.

I’ll probably keep updating the dashboard as that doesn’t take much effort. 

Before signing off, here’s a cursory report of the numbers for 2025 so far.

2025 so far

Seventy-six successful orbital launches have been conducted in the first few months of 2025 (1 January through 14 April 2025), up from 71 around this time in 2024. Approximately 1,083 spacecraft were deployed in 2025, compared to around 740 in 2024. 

If the trends of the first three-and-a-half months remain true, companies (specifically SpaceX) will have conducted more launches in 2025 than in 2024—Ditto for spacecraft deployments. But I wouldn’t bet on that, as the U.S. administration’s actions continue to make everything uncertain. I’d be surprised if the U.S. space industry comes through unscathed. If it’s unaffected, then great!

Nearly 80% of those 2025 deployments are of U.S. spacecraft. China’s spacecraft deployments are at about 9% so far, while those from other nations have captured a share of less than 1%. 

Orbital launches are a little different. U.S. launches so far have taken a little over a 64% share, while China’s launch services accounted for 25%. Russia is at nearly 7%, and France, India, and Japan each account for a little over 1.3% share of successful orbital launches.

SpaceX accounted for ~57% (43) of all successful orbital launches (from 1 January through 14 April 2025), and SpaceX-operated spacecraft accounted for 62% (672) of all spacecraft deployments. While these numbers give habitual U.S. chest-thumpers another thumping opportunity, I still believe SpaceX’s dominance poses a problem for the global industry. The company also increasingly depends on government contracts, such as its most recent $5.9 billion award for 28 launches. 

Based on SpaceX's performance, the large number of launch allocations shouldn’t be surprising. But, the cost–that’s ~$210 million per launch–is a little over triple its commercial cost. It appears that the DoD is content with subsidizing SpaceX despite the company’s dominance. Perhaps it believes that extra money will go toward Starship, but a subsidy by any other name would smell as rotten.

STILL No Competitors?

Not to downplay some of the technologies SpaceX has made common, such as reusability and LEO internet. Nor should the Falcon 9's reliability and high launch frequency be discounted, as those are outstanding achievements. However, the fact that the only competitors willing to take on SpaceX and actively doing so come from China, rather than the U.S. or Europe, is not great, either. 

Listening to ULA’s CEO rationalize how acceptable it is for his company to take second position in military contract awards reminds me a little of how Microsoft handled Apple during the “Hi, I’m a Mac/PC” campaign. It didn’t, which gave Apple the upper hand in marketing for a long time. ULA’s seeming easy acceptance of SpaceX’s dominance, with no aggressive campaign, looks like the same beta behavior. 

Maybe Tory’s too nice, but for goodness' sake, ULA should be competing aggressively. It may be that it was the top dog for so long that it no longer knows how. At the very least, Arianespace has been dismissive of SpaceX’s existence and its progress with reusability, in a passive/aggressive way.

The upshot of the nearly first four months of 2025’s space activities indicates that launch and deployment records will again be broken, primarily thanks to SpaceX. While they are new records, the reasons for achieving them are uninspiring–deploying orbiting internet routers. 

Promising Work

On the more promising side, nearly 40% of spacecraft deployments were attributed to other companies and organizations working to test or provide a plethora of services. That’s over 400 satellites of all kinds of sizes launched to orbit in the hopes of delivering something more interesting and valuable to humanity. 

For example, we rarely witness the deployment of biology testbeds, but this may change soon if companies like Varda continue to develop reentry capsules. There’s promise for commercial navigation services, for which a few companies in China appear to be forging ahead. So much more interesting and tantalizing than internet communications. 

In some ways, there’s a choice that everyone in the space community must make. It’s one I perceive, but it may not be connected to reality at all. Accept becoming a part of the matrix, providing our energy to boost someone else’s online ego, mouthing Mars mantras, arguing about sub-orbital passenger definitions, and validating someone’s and validating someone’s newest LEO internet prognostication with a random and uninspired comment. Or, help build something better, different, and more life-changing for current and future generations. 

I choose to do the latter instead of remaining a battery.

Again, thank you for reading my articles. It means a lot that you liked them enough to subscribe to Ill-Defined Space. 

–john